Pregame Preview: No. 7 Northern Kentucky vs No. 5 Green Bay
Green Bay has been one of the Horizon League’s biggest turnaround stories this season. After winning just four games last year, the Phoenix now sit at 18 wins and earned their first Horizon League Tournament victory since March 5, 2020.
That jump is rooted in continuity. Green Bay returned the second-most minutes in the league from last season’s roster, and that experience shows. In conference play, they rank second in three-point shooting, third in free throw shooting percentage, and are the most efficient team at the free throw line.
This matchup is also a clash of tempo. Green Bay plays at the slowest pace in the Horizon League and the eighth-slowest pace in Division I. In the first meeting, the Phoenix held NKU to its fewest offensive possessions of the season (70). In the rematch, excluding overtime, they limited the Norse to their third-fewest possessions (75). Both games ended in Green Bay wins. Dictating pace will be the name of the game in the third matchup once again.
This Green Bay team arrives in a much different groove than the Oakland group NKU saw in the first round. The Phoenix closed the regular season on a 5-2 run, with their only losses coming on the road at Milwaukee and Detroit Mercy by a combined seven points. Doug Gottlieb and his group also had a feel-good moment beating Purdue Fort Wayne at home in the tournament opener and now head to Indy carrying real momentum.
On the defensive end, NKU has taken two very different approaches against Green Bay. In the first matchup, the Norse played zone and fist coverage on 67% of possessions, allowing 1.093 points per possession in those looks compared to 1.048 PPP in man defense.
The second meeting flipped that script. NKU played man-to-man on 93% of possessions, and the results were stronger at 0.955 PPP. Even though the Norse mixed coverages against Oakland, the matchup history suggests NKU will lean heavily on man-to-man defense against Green Bay.
Let’s break down the third matchup and what NKU needs to key on for each player.
Green Bay's Scouting Report
★ = Starter of Previous Game
#0 Ramel Bethea – Sophomore Forward, 6'9" – Fort Washington, MD / Friendly
Season Averages: 12.7 MIN, 3.7 PTS, 2.6 REB, 0.3 AST, 0.3 STL, 1.2 BLK, 0.6 TO, 74.2 FG%, 66.7 FT%, 0.0 3PT%
Bethea’s role is clear when he checks in: rebound, protect the rim, finish easy ones. He ranks 7th in the Horizon League in total blocks with 36 in 29 games, all while playing under 13 minutes per game.
Against NKU, he logged 30 total minutes across the two meetings and made the most of them. Bethea went 5-7 from the field for 12 points, added 3 blocks, and grabbed key boards, but foul trouble limited his impact. He committed 9 fouls across the two games and fouled out in the second matchup. LJ Wells drew 5 of those fouls.
Offensively, his efficiency makes sense. Most of his scoring comes on lobs, dump-offs, and offensive rebound putbacks, where he can use his size and length around the rim.
★ #2 Preston Ruedinger – Redshirt Senior Guard, 6'2" – Oshkosh, WI / Lourdes Academy
Season Averages: 35.3 MIN, 11.6 PTS, 3.9 REB, 5.4 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.1 BLK, 1.4 TO, 42.7 FG%, 90.5 FT%, 41.5 3PT%
The Wisconsin native is the veteran leader and offensive engine for Green Bay. In wins, his impact jumps across the board. He averages 3.6 more points, 1.3 more assists, shoots 12% better from the field, and 13% better from three while also taking better care of the ball.
NKU held Ruedinger under double figures in the second meeting and limited him to 2-9 from deep, but one of those makes was the near buzzer-beating three in overtime that sealed the win and handed NKU its fifth straight loss.
Even with the tough shooting night, he generated plenty of clean looks. NKU defenders still have to treat him as a perimeter priority. Ruedinger ranks 10th in the Horizon League in made threes this season and is more than capable of flipping a game with a quick shooting stretch.
★ #7 Justin Allen – Senior Guard, 6'4" – Mt. Kisco, NY
Season Averages: 26.2 MIN, 13.5 PTS, 3.6 REB, 1.7 AST, 0.5 STL, 0.1 BLK, 1.3 TO, 47.9 FG%, 82.8 FT%, 24.4 3PT%
In the first matchup between these teams, Allen erupted for 27 points on 10-17 shooting, including 2-6 from three. The rematch was quieter scoring-wise with 9 points on 3-9 shooting, but he still made an impact by grabbing 10 rebounds.
He’s most effective at the rim, where he’s shooting over 57% this season. Against the Norse, he’s gone 9-14 at the basket and was a relentless downhill driver in the first meeting. Slowing his penetration has to be a priority.
In the Horizon League Tournament opener vs Purdue Fort Wayne, he scored the second-most points on the team with 13, shooting 4-12 from the field and 5-6 from the free throw line.
★ #10 C.J. O’Hara – Sophomore Guard, 6'4" – Minneapolis, MN / Totino-Grace
Season Averages: 32.4 MIN, 13.9 PTS, 4.4 REB, 1.3 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.3 BLK, 1.5 TO, 56.9 FG%, 78.7 FT%, 30.4 3PT%
O’Hara was the difference-maker the last time these teams met. He poured in a team-high 23 points on 9-13 shooting, adding 6 rebounds and 3 steals to push Green Bay to the win.
His game is simple and direct. O’Hara wants to get downhill, live in the paint, and finish at the rim. All but one of his shots against NKU this season came at the basket, and overall he has taken just 35 shots all year that weren’t around the rim.
Defensively, NKU has found ways to attack him in both matchups. The Norse have scored a combined 37 points with him as the primary defender and shot 56.5% in those situations. They’ve capitalized when he overhelps in the paint, creating open looks, and by pulling him into screening actions that open driving lanes.
★ #13 Marcus Hall – Junior Forward, 6'6" – Schofield, WI / D.C. Everest
Season Averages: 34.6 MIN, 14.1 PTS, 5.3 REB, 2.4 AST, 0.3 STL, 0.2 BLK, 1.6 TO, 47.4 FG%, 76.0 FT%, 40.8 3PT%
Hall has been steady in both matchups with the Norse. One of those games included a season-high 9 assists, showing his playmaking ability, and in the Horizon League Tournament game vs Purdue Fort Wayne he led all scorers with 19 points, hitting 4-8 from three while playing all but one minute.
He’s a confident shooter from anywhere behind the arc and finishes efficiently at the rim, where he’s converting nearly 60%. Most of his offense comes as a spot-up threat, but he’ll also mix in post-ups and pick-and-roll actions to create mismatches.
#22 LeBron Thomas – Junior Guard, 6'3" – Bishopville, SC
Season Averages: 12.2 MIN, 4.0 PTS, 1.9 REB, 0.9 AST, 0.4 STL, 0.0 BLK, 1.0 TO, 47.3 FG%, 67.9 FT%, 11.1 3PT%
Thomas serves as Green Bay’s seventh man and hasn’t made a major impact in the two matchups with NKU, going a combined 2-6 from the field for 4 total points. He was more involved in the Horizon League Tournament opener vs Purdue Fort Wayne, contributing 8 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists in a solid all-around performance.
In league play, Thomas has been a dependable defender, holding opponents to 34.7% shooting from the field.
★ #23 Caden Wilkins – Redshirt Freshman Forward, 6'6" – Bettendorf, IA / Bettendorf
Season Averages: 21.5 MIN, 6.9 PTS, 2.9 REB, 0.6 AST, 0.3 STL, 0.4 BLK, 0.7 TO, 43.3 FG%, 66.7 FT%, 40.5 3PT%
Wilkins’ game revolves around the three-point line. Nearly 70% of his shot attempts this season have come from deep, and he has made NKU pay from the perimeter. In two matchups with the Norse, he went 8-12 from three and scored 28 total points.
He’s slightly less effective from the corners, but otherwise he’s a dangerous perimeter shooter that NKU has to locate in transition and in half-court rotations. Forcing him to put the ball on the floor and create off the dribble takes him out of his comfort zone.
