Pregame Preview: No. 7 Northern Kentucky vs No. 4 Oakland
The Norse will open Horizon League tournament play on the road at Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies swept the regular season series, but they have cooled off since the last meeting on February 1. Oakland is just 2-5 in its last seven, and those two wins came against IU Indy and Milwaukee, two of the three worst teams in the league by record.
Not long ago, Oakland was right there with Wright State, separated from the rest of the pack and chasing a regular season title. Instead, they slid behind both Robert Morris and their crosstown rival Detroit Mercy down the stretch. So what changed in February? The numbers tell the story.
Over the last seven games, Oakland’s opponents are averaging more than 83 points per game. In the first 13 Horizon League games, that number was 78. That defensive drop-off has been significant.
The Robert Morris game was the clearest example. Oakland gave up 93 points while allowing RMU to shoot 57.6 FG% and 43.3 3PT%. Robert Morris also piled up 50 points in the paint, consistently attacking inside and finishing.
Against Detroit Mercy, it was more of the same. UDM shot 54.1 FG% and scored 95 points. Oakland led for just 4:47 the entire game, meaning they were chasing most of the afternoon. Detroit Mercy added 40 paint points in that matchup as well.
Even in the loss to Youngstown State, the Penguins scored 86 points and held the lead for over 30 minutes. That was not a late-game collapse. That was Oakland getting beat for most of the night.
Oakland leans heavily on its zone. The Golden Grizzlies play zone on 79.1% of their defensive possessions, the fourth-highest rate in Division I. Overall, it has been effective. Opponents average just .977 points per possession against their zone, well below the Division I average of 1.05 PPP, which helps keep games manageable.
Where things start to slip is with their primary starting group of Wells, Houge, White, Naivalurua, and Robinson.
In Horizon League play, that lineup has been on the floor together for 16% of possessions. During those minutes, opponents are scoring 1.093 points per possession while shooting 60.8% from two and 41.3% from three.
So while the zone structure looks strong on paper, the numbers with their main rotation tell a different story. When teams crack the zone and force that starting group to defend extended possessions, the efficiency spikes quickly.
Now flip it to the Northern Kentucky side.
The Norse have won four of their last six, but the most recent result still stings. Wright State erased an 18-point halftime deficit and won it on a tip-in, turning what looked like NKU’s best half of the year into a frustrating finish.
The other loss in this stretch came at Youngstown State, when NKU played its worst offensive half of the season. The Norse scored just 15 points in the first half, yet still managed to turn it into a one-possession game in the closing minutes. Even on an off night, they gave themselves a chance.
It is not hard to imagine an alternate version of this stretch where NKU enters the tournament on a six-game winning streak. But that is not the reality. Instead, the Norse head into March with some momentum, a couple of missed opportunities, and a first-round road game waiting in Rochester.
Oakland swept the first two meetings, so this sets up a simple storyline. Either the Golden Grizzlies make it three straight over NKU this season, or the Norse take the one that actually matters.
History gives NKU some confidence. In Darrin Horn’s tenure, the Norse are 2-0 in this exact situation. They lost twice in the regular season, then flipped the script in the tournament. That happened in 2022 against Detroit Mercy and again in 2024 against Wright State. Horn has also never lost to the same team three times in a single season in his head coaching career.
League-wide, though, the trend leans the other way. Over the last six seasons, Horizon League teams are just 6-17 in tournament games against opponents that beat them twice during the regular season, excluding NKU’s two wins in that spot.
So the numbers say it is difficult. Horn’s history says it is doable. That tension is what makes this one interesting.
Dive into the full scouting report ahead of the Norse’s matchup and get everything you need before tip-off.
Oakland's Scouting Report
★ = Starter of Previous Game
★ #2 Ziare Wells – Senior Guard, 6'6" 170 lbs – Queens, NY / South Shore HS
Previous School: Lenoir-Rhyne
Season Averages: 26.8 MIN, 10.1 PTS, 4.5 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.4 STL, 0.3 BLK, 1.2 TO, 50.2 FG%, 70.9 FT%, 39.0 3PT%
Against the Norse this season, Wells has scored 17 total points across the two matchups, with much of his offense coming in transition. The lefty made his biggest impact in the second meeting not as a scorer, but as a playmaker and defender. He posted a season-high 5 assists and season high 3 blocks.
If NKU wants to limit his influence, it starts with transition defense. Take away the easy runouts, force him into half-court decisions, and make him operate against a set defense rather than in space.
★ #6 Michael Houge – Fifth-Year Forward, 6'7" 228 lbs – Detroit, MI / Chattanooga Christian HS
Previous School: Jacksonville State
Season Averages: 26.7 MIN, 12.7 PTS, 5.4 REB, 0.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.4 BLK, 1.8 TO, 53.5 FG%, 72.2 FT%, 22.2 3PT%
Houge scored 18 points in both matchups against NKU this season and was a steady interior presence in each game. Of his 15 made field goals against the Norse, 14 came off cuts to the rim or offensive rebound putbacks. He does not overcomplicate it. He catches, lowers his shoulder, and attacks the basket.
In the second meeting, with LJ Wells unavailable, Houge went directly at Tolliver and Archer and consistently tried to create contact at the rim. For NKU, the key will be physicality early. Put a body on him, finish possessions with rebounds, and do not allow him to live off second-chance points and backdoor cuts.
Last time out against Detroit Mercy, Houge only played 12 minutes and had a limited impact on the game despite starting.
#10 Brett White II – Fifth-Year Guard, 6'6" 184 lbs – Battle Creek, MI / Battle Creek Central
Previous School: Rochester Christian
Season Averages: 23.8 MIN, 9.1 PTS, 3.2 REB, 0.6 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.4 BLK, 0.4 TO, 40.7 FG%, 68.4 FT%, 37.0 3PT%
White reached double figures in both matchups against the Norse and has been a clear perimeter threat in this series. Of his 24 total shot attempts against NKU, 10 were catch-and-shoot threes, which tells you exactly how Oakland is looking to use him.
In the most recent game against the Titans, he knocked down 5 threes on his way to 17 points in the loss. NKU has to be sharp on closeouts and disciplined in rotation. If White is able to step into rhythm catch-and-shoot looks, he can swing momentum quickly coming off the bench.
★ #12 Tuburu Naivalurua – Fifth-Year Forward, 6'8" 240 lbs – Sydney, Australia / Endeavour Sports HS
Previous School: Garden City CC
Season Averages: 31.9 MIN, 14.3 PTS, 6.0 REB, 1.9 AST, 1.1 STL, 1.0 BLK, 1.1 TO, 51.4 FG%, 71.1 FT%, 34.6 3PT%
The preseason Player of the Year has been relatively quiet against NKU this season, especially compared to expectations. He scored just 15 total points across the two matchups, with most of his baskets coming off cuts and dump-offs around the rim rather than self-created offense.
That said, he appears to be finding rhythm at the right time. He is coming off one of his best performances of the season, scoring 24 points on 9-12 shooting and 2-3 from three against the Titans. Over his last three games, he is averaging 21 points per game. If he carries that form into the tournament, NKU will have to deal with a much more assertive version than the one they saw earlier in the year.
#13 Warren Marshall IV – Redshirt Freshman, 6'6" 180 lbs – Auburn Hills, Mich. / Brother Rice HS
Season Averages: 12.6 MIN, 3.6 PTS, 1.8 REB, 0.3 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 0.4 TO, 54.1 FG%, 58.3 FT%, 24.1 3PT%
In the first matchup, Marshall played just 7 minutes and scored 2 points. In the return game at Oakland, his role expanded. He logged more than 20 minutes, scored 8 points on 4-5 shooting, and added 2 blocks.
Off the bench, his offense typically comes within the flow of the game. He scores as a spot-up option, in transition, or as a cutter slipping behind the defense. He is not a high-usage piece, but when he is active and efficient in limited minutes, he gives Oakland a boost.
★ #32 Isaac Garrett – Junior Forward, 6'8" 219 lbs – Pleasant Grove, UT / Pleasant Grove HS
Previous School: Snow College
Season Averages: 29.0 MIN, 13.7 PTS, 7.2 REB, 2.3 AST, 1.1 STL, 1.0 BLK, 1.9 TO, 53.4 FG%, 81.7 FT%, 22.7 3PT%
Garrett did not play in the most recent matchup against NKU at Oakland due to an ankle injury. In the first meeting, though, he was a major factor. He posted 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 assists and helped push Oakland to the win. Limiting his impact will be central to NKU’s chances.
Since the ankle injury at Detroit, his production has been inconsistent. Over his final five games of the regular season, he averaged 9.4 points while shooting 43% from the field. The Robert Morris game stood out in particular. He was held to just 2 points on 1-11 shooting. RMU did not throw exotic coverages at him. They simply walled up, stayed disciplined, and avoided fouling. Once the early misses came, the rhythm never followed.
If NKU can defend him with physicality and discipline, without sending him to the line, they can slow him down.
★ #55 Brody Robinson – Senior Guard, 5'11" 160 lbs – Houston, TX / Houston Christian HS
Previous School: UT Arlington
Season Averages: 35.7 MIN, 17.0 PTS, 2.6 REB, 6.8 AST, 1.3 STL, 0.0 BLK, 2.4 TO, 40.9 FG%, 79.9 FT%, 35.3 3PT%
The engine behind Oakland is a 5'11 guard who is one of the top scorers in the Horizon League. In the two matchups against NKU, Robinson scored 16 and 21 points. He is comfortable scoring in a variety of ways, whether it is spot-up shooting, in transition, or creating his own shot in isolation.
The second matchup in particular swung late because Robinson consistently got to the line. He shot 9-11 from the free throw line in that game, drawing contact and earning calls down the stretch. With his size, he is crafty. He will throw his body into defenders and force officials to make a decision.
Robinson leads the league with 254 free throw attempts, 68 more than Donovan Oday, who ranks second. That ability to live at the line is a major part of his offensive value.
Where teams can attack him is on the defensive end. Opponents are shooting over 48% against him this season. NKU has not fully capitalized on that in the two previous meetings, shooting just 5-15 when matched up against him. If the Norse can consistently involve him defensively, they may be able to tilt that matchup in their favor.
